International tourism will continue to grow in the period 2010-2030, but at a more moderate pace than the past decades, with the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide increasing by an average 3.3% a year. As a result, an average 43 million additional international tourists will join the tourism marketplace every year.

At the projected pace of growth, arrivals will pass the 1 billion mark by 2012, up from 940 million in 2010. By 2030, arrivals are expected to reach 1.8 billion, meaning that in two decades’ time, 5 million people will be crossing international borders for leisure, business or other purposes such as visiting friends and family every day.

“The next 20 years will be of continued growth for the sector – a more moderate, responsible and inclusive growth,” said UNWTO Secretary-General, Taleb Rifai. ”This growth offers immense possibilities as these can also be years of leadership, with tourism leading economic growth, social progress and environmental sustainability, “ he said.

Emerging economies to continue gaining market share

International arrivals in emerging economy destinations are expected to continue growing at double the pace (+4.4% year) of advanced ones (+2.2% a year). In absolute terms, the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, Eastern Mediterranean Europe, the Middle East and Africa will gain an average 30 million arrivals a year, compared to 14 million in the traditional destinations of the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia and the Pacific.

By 2015, emerging economies will receive more international tourist arrivals than advanced economies, and by 2030 their share is expected to reach 58%.

There will be increases in the global market shares of Asia and the Pacific (to 30% in 2030, up from 22% in 2010), the Middle East (to 8% from 6%) and Africa (to 7% from 5%), and further declines in the shares of Europe (to 41% from 51%) and the Americas (to 14% from 16%), mostly due to the slower growth of North America.

By 2030, North East Asia will be the most visited subregion in the world, representing 16% of total arrivals and taking over from Southern and Mediterranean Europe, with a 15% share in 2030.

Outbound tourism to grow most in Asia and the Pacific

A large proportion of the arrivals of the next two decades will originate from the countries of Asia and the Pacific, growing at a rate of 5.0% a year and generating an average 17 million additional international arrivals every year. Europe follows with an average 16 million extra arrivals a year, resulting from a much more moderate growth rate (+2.5% a year), but on top of a much larger base. The remaining 10 million additional yearly arrivals are generated by the Americas (5 million), Africa (3 million) and the Middle East (2 million).

“Tourism Towards 2030 shows that there is still significant potential for further expansion in the coming decades. Established, as well as new destinations, can benefit from this trend and opportunity, provided they shape the appropriate conditions and policies with regard to business environment, infrastructure, facilitation, marketing and human resources,” said Mr. Rifai. “Nevertheless, alongside this opportunity, challenges will also arise in terms of maximizing tourism’s social and economic benefits while minimizing negative impacts. As such, it is more important than ever that all tourism development be guided by the principles of sustainable development”.

Photos via Castoro Cellars Castoro Cellars, founded by the husband and wife team of Niels and Bimmer Udsen in 1983, is one of Paso Robles' oldest wineries. What started out as just a few barrels in some rented space has grown into a 25,000-case operation. And it's all been under one simple mission: dam fine wine!... Read the full story on...

Coastline near Alonissos, Greece. Photo: Anca Pandrea / Creative Commons. As mega-resorts continue to sprout along much of the Aegean and Mediterranean coastlines, one North Aegean island in Greece is thriving on lower-key, eco-friendly tourism -- thanks to the discovery there nearly 30 years ago of one of the world's most endangered <a...

BS8901 is the British Standard that has been developed specifically for the events industry with a purpose of helping the industry to operate in a more sustainable manner. It is the only standard for sustainable events in the world, and ensures a balanced approach to economic activity, environmental responsibility and social progress relating to events.

The new standard requires organizations to identify and understand the effects that their activities have on the environment, on society and on the economy both within the organization and the wider economy; and put measure in place to minimize the negative effects. Inspired by the London2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games, BS8901 looks set to roll out globally as ISO20121 in 2012; its importance and significance being recognized as it is sped through the stages of such diversification in order to be operational before the Games. The London Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2012 will be the first event to undergo the rigorous ISO2012 procedure.

Fiona Pelham Managing Director of Sustainable Events Ltd and Chair of ISO 20121 said: 'Since the launch of BS8901 in 2007, England has taken a lead with the creation and implementation of international frameworks for sustainability. In addition to the development of ISO 20121 some of the first Global Reporting Initiative Event Organizer Sector Supplement reports have been produced in England including the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and England 2018 FIFA World Cup bid.’ 

Country-wide, England is showing its strength in this field, with a host of new and improved event venues and an impressive roll call of sustainable events being held on English soil.

SGS International has also recently been endorsed by VisitEngland, following an independent review, to certify towards the BS8901 standard, and destinations throughout England are embracing green developments.

The city of Liverpool has a new purpose-built venue, ACC Liverpool, with an innovative approach to conferencing and events. The only BREEAM accredited venue in the UK, the entire ACC Liverpool building is designed to be inherently efficient, with an insulation and air control system that requires significantly less energy than a traditional build. ACC Liverpool has been designed with environmentally-friendly features that cut its CO2 emissions in half, while using 20% less electricity. The venue won Gold in the Best Venue for Sustainability award in the Conference & Incentive Travel Hot List 2010 – the latest in a long list of accolades, and has won two Green Apple Awards. It is also working towards IS014001 and has recently been awarded the gold standard in the Green Business Tourism Scheme assessment.

Meanwhile, the University of Liverpool has joined with big names like Ford Motor Company in important collaboration projects. The University’s School of Engineering and Ford are working to produce a high-performance, low carbon cars of the future. The project includes Jaguar Land-Rover and Johnson Matthey, a major manufacturer of catalytic converters. They aim to develop new ways of setting the engine’s computer to improve fuel consumption and reduce emissions.      

Manchester has been asked to be the pilot urban city for ‘wise growth’, the term being used to replace ‘sustainable tourism’, to bring together tourism growth with visions of sustainability. The focus is looking at the balance between the demands of visitors, the industry, local community and the environment. Manchester will be the urban pilot and Visit Manchester is leading the project with the aim to make sure that responsible tourism is not simply an add-on but integrated into strategy and action plans. 

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Globally there are so many different green certification schemes for the hotel and hospitality industries that both the hoteliers and their customers are both confused and frustrated. What is needed is a common benchmark upon which the hotel and travel industries can be measured!..

We are all aware that creating a sustainable way forward in tourism is both necessary and beneficial to the industry. Your clients are looking for green accommodation and travel, event organisers and meeting planners are under pressure to provide green venues, especially within the government sector, and sustainability can also mean more profit to your organisation.

According to the World Tourism Organization, ecotourism is the fastest growing market in the tourism industry, growing at a rate of 5% worldwide and representing over 11% of all consumer spending.

The non-profit International Ecotourism Society recently stated 'more than two-thirds of U.S. and Australian travelers, and 90% of British tourists, consider active protection of the environment and support of local communities to be part of a hotel's responsibility.'

From this you clearly see that to stay competitive in the market, you need to be green certified – but which one? There is Green Leaf, Green Key Global, Green Globe, Green Seal, Green Tourism Business Scheme, and for all we know Green Giant (I made that up)!

The UNWTO (World Tourism Organisation) is currently meeting in Cambodia (3-5 October 2011) to discuss Ecotourism, one of the outcomes is purported to be “Delegates conclude with the drafting of a Declaration, sealing the commitment of a common vision and collective affirmative actions to be undertaken.”

Is it not time for the world’s governments to come up with a common standard for the Industry to be measured by? I understand that there will be regional variations required, but it is not beyond the means of man (or government official) to allow for these. In this way the hotel and travel Industries will all have a collective understanding of what is required and how to achieve truly recognized green certification, and your customers will understand how to measure your achievements.

This article is the introduction to a series of articles on ecotourism, the way forward from Hotelier.com.

Author: Paul Rees